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Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Estrada J.
68' Event
Navarrete L.
(Penalty)
71' Event
Martinez K.

AI Match Summary

Toluca U21 in this Liga MX U21 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Toluca U21
15%
Draws
24%
Juarez U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toluca U21 lately — more wins on the board than Juarez U21.
  • Model gives Toluca U21 a 61% chance of winning this.
  • Toluca U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Toluca U21, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Juarez U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Juarez U21
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 21 16
Draws 0 2
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 2.03 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
2:1
May 2, 2026 Liga MX U21
Juarez U21 vs Toluca U21
3:0
Apr 29, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
3:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
2:3
Aug 11, 2025 Liga MX U21
Juarez U21 vs Toluca U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Estrada J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martinez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Juarez U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 85 / 100
Juarez U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Juarez U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U21 found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Toluca U21 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Juarez U21 let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Juarez U21
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
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Juarez U21

(Away)
02 Oct
Guadalajara Chivas U21
1 : 0
Juarez U21
27 Sept
Club Leon U21
1 : 0
Juarez U21
18 Sept
Juarez U21
2 : 1
Tigres UANL U21
13 Sept
Santos Laguna U21
1 : 2
Juarez U21
04 Sept
Juarez U21
1 : 2
Pachuca U21
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Club America U21 2
UNAM Pumas U21 2
Monterrey U21 3
Pachuca U21 5
Guadalajara Chivas U21 2
Atlas U21 1
Juarez U21 3
Toluca U21 3
Semi-finals
Club America U21 4
Pachuca U21 4
Guadalajara Chivas U21 0
Juarez U21 0
Final
Club America U21 1
Guadalajara Chivas U21 4