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Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Penalty Missed
43' Event
84' Event

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX U21 game between Toluca U21 and Necaxa U21 finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Toluca U21
15%
Draws
32%
Necaxa U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toluca U21 come out ahead of Necaxa U21 on wins alone.
  • Toluca U21 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Toluca U21 have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 14%
Necaxa U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Necaxa U21
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 2 0
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.75 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21
2:0
Feb 21, 2026 Liga MX U21
Necaxa U21 vs Toluca U21
3:2
Jul 12, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 84 / 100
Necaxa U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Necaxa U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca U21 scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Necaxa U21 let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Toluca U21 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Necaxa U21
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas U21
18 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0
Toluca U21
29 Apr
Toluca U21
3 : 0
Juarez U21
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Necaxa U21

(Away)
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Necaxa U21
26 Jul
Necaxa U21
0 : 3
Monterrey U21
16 Jul
Necaxa U21
2 : 1
Atlante U21
26 Apr
Cruz Azul U21
3 : 1
Necaxa U21
22 Apr
Necaxa U21
2 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 3 2 0 1 5:3 7
2 Cruz Azul U21 3 3 0 0 7:4 6
3 Monterrey U21 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
4 Puebla U21 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
5 Toluca U21 2 2 0 0 5:2 5
6 Club Leon U21 2 2 0 0 4:2 5
7 Santos Laguna U21 2 2 0 0 3:1 5
8 Pachuca U21 3 1 0 2 4:5 5
9 Club Tijuana U21 2 1 0 1 2:1 4
10 Queretaro U21 3 1 0 2 4:3 3
11 Atletico San Luis U21 3 1 0 2 5:6 3
12 Juarez U21 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
13 Tigres UANL U21 3 1 0 2 3:8 3
14 UNAM Pumas U21 2 1 0 1 2:2 2
15 Guadalajara Chivas U21 2 0 0 2 2:4 2
16 Atlante U21 3 0 0 3 4:7 2
17 Necaxa U21 3 1 0 2 2:6 2
18 Atlas U21 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Liga MX U21 (Apertura - Play Offs)