Sport Picks
Toluca vs San Diego FC
North & Central America
CONCACAF Champions Cup Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca 
Match Events
12'
12'
Paulinho
23'
23'
Mendez B.
40'
40'
McVey C.
AI Match Summary
Toluca in this CONCACAF Champions Cup tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to San Diego FC lately — more wins on the board than Toluca.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- San Diego FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Toluca, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Toluca Clean Sheet 16%
San Diego FC Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toluca | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Toluca vs San Diego FC
4:0
Mar 12, 2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup
San Diego FC vs Toluca
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toluca Compare
Top Goalscorer Angulo J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Paulinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
San Diego FC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toluca 31 / 100
San Diego FC 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toluca San Diego FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SDI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:4
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Toluca found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).
H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.
San Diego FC let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
Toluca has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Toluca VS San Diego FC
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Toluca
(Home) 26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3 Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2 UNAM Pumas
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2 Toluca
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3 Toluca
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0 Toluca
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Toluca
1 : 3 Cruz Azul
22 Jul
Toluca
1 : 2 UNAM Pumas
31 May
Toluca
2 : 1 Tigres UANL
07 May
Toluca
4 : 0 Los Angeles FC
04 May
Toluca
0 : 1 Pachuca
Page 1 of 3
San Diego FC
(Away) 26 Jul
San Diego FC
1 : 0 FC Dallas
23 Jul
Colorado Rapids
1 : 0 San Diego FC
24 May
San Diego FC
2 : 4 Vancouver Whitecaps
17 May
San Diego FC
3 : 3 FC Cincinnati
14 May
San Diego FC
5 : 0 Austin FC
Page 1 of 6
23 Jul
Colorado Rapids
1 : 0 San Diego FC
10 May
Seattle Sounders
1 : 1 San Diego FC
23 Apr
Houston Dynamo
1 : 0 San Diego FC
19 Apr
Real Salt Lake
4 : 2 San Diego FC
05 Apr
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 0 San Diego FC
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Toluca-
TBD-
UNAM Pumas2
San Diego FC4
Mount Pleasant-
TBD-
Los Angeles Galaxy1
Sporting San Miguelito1
Cruz Azul8
Vancouver FC0
Monterrey3
Xelaju1
Alajuelense-
TBD-
Los Angeles FC7
Real Espana1
Inter Miami-
TBD-
Nashville SC7
Atletico Ottawa0
Club America2
Olimpia1
Philadelphia Union12
Defence Force0
Tigres UANL4
Forge FC1
FC Cincinnati13
Universidad O&M0
Seattle Sounders-
TBD-
Vancouver Whitecaps2
Cartagines0
1/8-finals
Toluca6
San Diego FC3
Mount Pleasant0
Los Angeles Galaxy6
Cruz Azul4
Monterrey3
Alajuelense2
Los Angeles FC3
Inter Miami1
Nashville SC1
Club America2
Philadelphia Union1
Tigres UANL5
FC Cincinnati4
Seattle Sounders5
Vancouver Whitecaps1
Quarter-finals
Toluca7
Los Angeles Galaxy2
Cruz Azul1
Los Angeles FC4
Nashville SC1
Club America0
Tigres UANL3
Seattle Sounders3
Semi-finals
Toluca5
Los Angeles FC2
Nashville SC0
Tigres UANL2
Final
Toluca2
Tigres UANL1
