Sport Picks
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
Mexico
Liga MX Women 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca 
Match Events
10'
10'
Le Sommer E.
12'
12'
Henry A.
16'
16'
Erceg A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga MX Women 2025/2026 game between Toluca W and Atletico San Luis W finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico San Luis W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Toluca W carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Atletico San Luis W's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico San Luis W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toluca W | Atletico San Luis W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.42 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.7 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 3, 2026 Liga MX Women
Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W
1:4
Feb 5, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
4:0
Oct 12, 2025 Liga MX Women
Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W
1:1
Mar 9, 2025 Liga MX Women
Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W
1:0
Nov 1, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toluca W Compare
Top Goalscorer Le Sommer E.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lopez V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Atletico San Luis W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toluca W 26 / 100
Atletico San Luis W 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toluca W Atletico San Luis W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico San Luis W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Toluca W scored in 91% of their last 33 outings.
Atletico San Luis W has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Recent resilience: Toluca W stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Toluca W VS Atletico San Luis W
2.5 Goals Scored 2.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Toluca W
(Home) 29 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 4 Toluca W
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7 Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0 Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1 Toluca W
29 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 0 Club Leon W
Page 1 of 7
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7 Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0 Club Tijuana W
29 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 0 Club Leon W
18 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 1 Atlas W
11 Aug
Toluca W
2 : 0 Juarez W
Page 1 of 4
Atletico San Luis W
(Away) 28 Sept
Tigres UANL W
1 : 1 Atletico San Luis W
20 Sept
Atletico San Luis W
2 : 1 Pachuca W
13 Sept
Atletico San Luis W
2 : 3 Santos Laguna W
05 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 2 Atletico San Luis W
30 Aug
Atletico San Luis W
6 : 1 Atlas W
Page 1 of 6
28 Sept
Tigres UANL W
1 : 1 Atletico San Luis W
05 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 2 Atletico San Luis W
23 Aug
Puebla W
2 : 5 Atletico San Luis W
16 Aug
Guadalajara Chivas W
3 : 1 Atletico San Luis W
24 Apr
Club Leon W
1 : 2 Atletico San Luis W
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America W | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 44:13 | 42 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 39:8 | 40 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 41:13 | 37 |
| 4 | Pachuca W | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 46:15 | 36 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas W | 17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 27:13 | 34 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:26 | 33 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul W | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 38:19 | 31 |
| 8 | Juarez W | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 27:18 | 29 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana W | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 31:23 | 28 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas W | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 23:29 | 22 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis W | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20:32 | 21 |
| 12 | Mazatlan FC W | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:27 | 18 |
| 13 | Club Leon W | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 32:35 | 16 |
| 14 | Atlas W | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22:40 | 12 |
| 15 | Puebla W | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11:46 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna W | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14:29 | 9 |
| 17 | Queretaro W | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11:46 | 5 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11:62 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga MX Women 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
