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Toluca W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women 2025/2026 Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Mariza
37'
Martinez K.
44' Event
Ordonez D.

AI Match Summary

Toluca W in this Liga MX Women 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Toluca W
15%
Draws
45%
Tigres UANL W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tigres UANL W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Tigres UANL W have won more games recently than Toluca W.
  • Win probability leans Tigres UANL W's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Tigres UANL W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tigres UANL W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
Tigres UANL W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca W Tigres UANL W
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 18 21
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.26 2.52
Goals Conceded 1.77 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Tigres UANL W
2:7
May 4, 2026 Liga MX Women
Tigres UANL W vs Toluca W
1:2
May 1, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Tigres UANL W
2:1
Jan 22, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Tigres UANL W
1:2
Jul 14, 2025 Liga MX Women
Tigres UANL W vs Toluca W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Le Sommer E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Robert F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Tigres UANL W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca W 18 / 100
Tigres UANL W 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca W Tigres UANL W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tigres UANL W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca W scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Tigres UANL W has conceded goals in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Toluca W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toluca W VS Tigres UANL W
2.38 Goals Scored 2.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca W

(Home)
29 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 4
Toluca W
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7
Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0
Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1
Toluca W
29 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 0
Club Leon W
Page 1 of 7

Tigres UANL W

(Away)
03 Oct
UNAM Pumas W
1 : 3
Tigres UANL W
28 Sept
Tigres UANL W
1 : 1
Atletico San Luis W
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7
Tigres UANL W
13 Sept
Club America W
5 : 2
Tigres UANL W
07 Sept
Tigres UANL W
3 : 0
Santos Laguna W
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Club America W 4
Juarez W 3
Tigres UANL W 2
Toluca W 4
Monterrey W 5
Cruz Azul W 1
Pachuca W 3
Guadalajara Chivas W 2
Semi-finals
Club America W 11
Toluca W 4
Monterrey W 4
Pachuca W 3
Final
Club America W 3
Monterrey W 1