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Tombense vs Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida, Tombos
Tombense Logo

Tombense

2 - 2
FT
Sao Bernardo Logo

Sao Bernardo

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Junior Urso
15'
Pablo Dyego
26'
Breno Roma
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Tombense
35%
Draws
35%
Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Bernardo's 1.31 goals per match outpaces what Tombense have produced (1.23).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sao Bernardo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Tombense Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tombense Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 11 9
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.23 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Tombense vs Sao Bernardo
2:2
Aug 3, 2025 Serie C
Sao Bernardo vs Tombense
2:0
Apr 27, 2024 Serie C
Sao Bernardo vs Tombense
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tombense 41 / 100
Sao Bernardo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tombense Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tombense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Tombense scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Sao Bernardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Tombense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tombense VS Sao Bernardo
0 Goals Scored 1
0.33 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tombense

(Home)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 6

Sao Bernardo

(Away)
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
10 Sept
Sao Bernardo
1 : 2
Londrina
06 Sept
Ponte Preta
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
28 Aug
Goias
2 : 1
Sao Bernardo
23 Aug
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Nautico
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)