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Tomori Berat vs AF Elbasani

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Telushi B.
45' Event
Lleshi A.
61' Event
Leo Melo

AI Match Summary

The Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024 game between Tomori Berat and AF Elbasani finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AF Elbasani.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Tomori Berat
30%
Draws
47%
AF Elbasani
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AF Elbasani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AF Elbasani come out ahead of Tomori Berat on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on AF Elbasani taking it.
  • Regular Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors AF Elbasani here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Tomori Berat Clean Sheet 18%
AF Elbasani Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tomori Berat AF Elbasani
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 3 15
Draws 2 9
Losses 25 11
Goals Scored 0.57 1.69
Goals Conceded 2.53 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
AF Elbasani vs Tomori Berat
5:0
Feb 10, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
Tomori Berat vs AF Elbasani
1:3
Oct 29, 2023 Kategoria e Parë
AF Elbasani vs Tomori Berat
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tomori Berat Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

AF Elbasani Compare

Top Goalscorer Telushi B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lleshi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tomori Berat 10 / 100
AF Elbasani 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tomori Berat AF Elbasani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AF Elbasani Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: AF Elbasani conceded in 83% of 35 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.

Tomori Berat scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Tomori Berat has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS AF Elbasani
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tomori Berat

(Home)
18 Nov
Flamurtari
9 : 0
Tomori Berat
15 Oct
KF Valbona
:
Tomori Berat
16 Oct
Tomori Berat
1 : 2
Iliria Kruja
08 May
Tomori Berat
0 : 2
Lushnja
04 May
AF Elbasani
5 : 0
Tomori Berat
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AF Elbasani

(Away)
20 Sept
KF Tirana
2 : 2
AF Elbasani
13 Sept
AF Elbasani
2 : 1
KF Egnatia
06 Sept
Dinamo City
2 : 1
AF Elbasani
29 Aug
AF Elbasani
1 : 1
Vllaznia
22 Aug
Laci
1 : 1
AF Elbasani
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AF Elbasani 33 24 7 2 76:32 79
2 Bylis 33 22 5 6 55:31 71
3 Flamurtari 33 16 10 7 46:29 58
4 Vora 33 15 5 13 61:50 50
5 Apolonia Fier 33 12 10 11 44:31 46
6 Korabi Peshkopi 33 12 8 13 42:38 44
7 Kastrioti 33 10 10 13 43:47 40
8 Burreli 33 12 4 17 28:43 40
9 Lushnja 33 10 8 15 38:53 38
10 Besa Kavaje 33 10 8 15 34:47 38
11 Luzi 33 9 4 20 41:56 31
12 Tomori Berat 33 4 5 24 21:72 17
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2023/2024 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024 (Relegation)