Sport Picks
Tondela vs Gil Vicente - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela 
Match Events
8'
8'
Marques C.
16'
16'
Rony Lopes
29'
29'
Murilo de Souza
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tondela
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Gil Vicente have won more games recently than Tondela.
- Win probability leans Tondela's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Tondela Clean Sheet 68%
Gil Vicente Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tondela | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2026 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Gil Vicente
2:2
Nov 29, 2025 Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente vs Tondela
0:1
Jul 22, 2022 Club Friendly
Gil Vicente vs Tondela
1:1
May 8, 2022 Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente vs Tondela
3:0
Dec 28, 2021 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Gil Vicente
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tondela Compare
Top Goalscorer Rony Lopes
1 Goals Assists Leader Hodge J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Gil Vicente Compare
Top Goalscorer Parente C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tondela 95 / 100
Gil Vicente 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tondela Gil Vicente
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tondela's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Gil Vicente's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Tondela remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Tondela VS Gil Vicente
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Tondela
(Home) 19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5 Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2 Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0 Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1 Amarante FC
29 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1 Sao Joao de Ver
25 Jul
Tondela
1 : 2 Beira Mar
Page 1 of 4
Gil Vicente
(Away) 19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1 Maritimo
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
06 Sept
Gil Vicente
0 : 1 Academico Viseu
30 Aug
Famalicao
0 : 0 Gil Vicente
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
30 Aug
Famalicao
0 : 0 Gil Vicente
01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2 Gil Vicente
16 May
Sporting CP
3 : 0 Gil Vicente
03 May
Rio Ave
0 : 0 Gil Vicente
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
