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Tondela vs Nacional

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Tondela
15%
Draws
28%
Nacional
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tondela lately — more wins on the board than Nacional.
  • Win probability leans Tondela's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Tondela Clean Sheet 19%
Nacional Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tondela Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 6
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Club Friendly
Tondela vs Nacional
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Nacional
0:2
Dec 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Tondela
3:1
Jul 24, 2025 Club Friendly
Nacional vs Tondela
1:2
May 12, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Nacional
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tondela 58 / 100
Nacional 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tondela Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Tondela scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Nacional has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Away concern: Nacional has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tondela VS Nacional
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

(Home)
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
16 Aug
Leixoes
1 : 0
Tondela
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Nacional

(Away)
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0
Nacional
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0
Estoril
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