Sport Picks
Match Events
14'
14'
Sub
Gabriel Veron In: Pablo Ruan
Out: Gabriel Veron
22'
22'
Ramirez J.
Assist: Daniel Junior
31'
31'
Medina B.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Nacional in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nacional.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tondela lately — more wins on the board than Nacional.
- Model gives Tondela a 85% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Tondela Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 9 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.37 | 1.42 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 19, 2026 Club Friendly
Tondela vs Nacional
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Nacional
0:2
Dec 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Tondela
3:1
Jul 24, 2025 Club Friendly
Nacional vs Tondela
1:2
May 12, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Nacional
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tondela Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Ramirez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tondela 95 / 100
Nacional 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tondela Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Nacional's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.
Tondela scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Nacional let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
Tondela VS Nacional
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tondela
(Home) 19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5 Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2 Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0 Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0 FC Porto B
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2 Academica
08 Aug
Tondela
2 : 1 Amarante FC
29 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1 Sao Joao de Ver
25 Jul
Tondela
1 : 2 Beira Mar
Page 1 of 4
Nacional
(Away) 19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
10 Aug
Santa Clara
2 : 2 Nacional
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0 Nacional
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
