Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tondela vs Vilafranquense

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Nene
38'
Sub
Nene In: Sangare B.
Out: Nene
62'
Sub
Barbosa R. In: Fonseca R.
Out: Barbosa R.

AI Match Summary

Tondela in this Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tondela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tondela
20%
Draws
29%
Vilafranquense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tondela have won more games recently than Vilafranquense.
  • Model gives Tondela a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Tondela Clean Sheet 68%
Vilafranquense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tondela Vilafranquense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 10 12
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Tondela vs Vilafranquense
1:0
Nov 5, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Tondela
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tondela Compare

Top Goalscorer Alves R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Vilafranquense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tondela 86 / 100
Vilafranquense 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tondela Vilafranquense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tondela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tondela scored in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Vilafranquense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Tondela remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tondela VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

(Home)
19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5
Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 7

Vilafranquense

(Away)
28 May
Vilafranquense
1 : 1
BSAD
19 May
Leixoes
2 : 0
Vilafranquense
14 May
Vilafranquense
0 : 0
Covilha
06 May
Mafra
2 : 1
Vilafranquense
29 Apr
Vilafranquense
2 : 0
Torreense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moreirense 34 24 7 3 77:38 79
2 SC Farense 34 21 6 7 57:34 69
3 Estrela da Amadora 34 16 15 3 55:35 63
4 Academico Viseu 34 14 11 9 51:45 53
5 FC Porto B 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
6 Mafra 34 12 11 11 46:49 47
7 Vilafranquense 34 12 10 12 42:36 46
8 Feirense 34 11 13 10 43:37 46
9 Torreense 34 13 5 16 38:41 44
10 Oliveirense 34 11 10 13 51:50 43
11 Tondela 34 8 16 10 35:35 40
12 Penafiel 34 9 12 13 36:47 39
13 Nacional 34 10 9 15 35:46 39
14 Benfica B 34 10 8 16 52:58 38
15 Leixoes 34 10 9 15 38:49 38
16 BSAD 34 9 8 17 41:59 35
17 Trofense 34 8 8 18 31:51 32
18 Covilha 34 7 7 20 31:57 28
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2023/2024 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Promotion)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Main)