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Tonga W vs American Samoa W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

World Cup Women
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Drago C. P.
76' Event
90' Event

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Tonga W
15%
Draws
42%
American Samoa W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • American Samoa W haven't matched Tonga W's recent run of results.
  • American Samoa W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Tonga W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor American Samoa W, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 11%
American Samoa W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga W American Samoa W
Matches Played 30 17
Wins 8 4
Draws 2 1
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 1.17 0.65
Goals Conceded 3.47 4.71
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 28, 2025 World Cup Women
Tonga W vs American Samoa W
0:3
Jul 15, 2019 Pacific Games Women
American Samoa W vs Tonga W
0:12

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tonga W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

American Samoa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Drago C. P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga W 10 / 100
American Samoa W 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga W American Samoa W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick American Samoa W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 7.50 goals when they meet.

American Samoa W let in goals in 71% of their last 17 matches.

Difficult form: American Samoa W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Tonga W scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tonga W VS American Samoa W
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 3.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga W

(Home)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

American Samoa W

(Away)
11 Apr
Papua New Guinea W
1 : 0
American Samoa W
05 Mar
American Samoa W
0 : 3
New Zealand W
02 Mar
American Samoa W
1 : 0
Samoa W
27 Feb
Solomon Islands W
0 : 1
American Samoa W
21 Feb
Fiji W
2 : 1
American Samoa W
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Tonga W 0
American Samoa W 3
Tahiti W 0
Cook Islands W 1
Final
American Samoa W 4
Cook Islands W 0