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Tonga W vs Cook Islands W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women 2022
Tonga W Logo

Tonga W

1 - 1
FT
Cook Islands W Logo

Cook Islands W

Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Davison L.
73' Event
Swift K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Tonga W
15%
Draws
51%
Cook Islands W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cook Islands W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Tonga W at 1.17 per game, Cook Islands W at 0.9.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Tonga W, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 19%
Cook Islands W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga W Cook Islands W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 2 4
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 1.17 0.9
Goals Conceded 3.47 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Cook Islands W vs Tonga W
0:1
Jul 16, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:1
Nov 25, 2018 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:0
Oct 27, 2014 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Cook Islands W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tonga W Compare

Top Goalscorer Swift K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Cook Islands W Compare

Top Goalscorer Davison L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga W 32 / 100
Cook Islands W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga W Cook Islands W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cook Islands W conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Tonga W found the back of the net in 43% of recent matches (30 games).

Tonga W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tonga W VS Cook Islands W
0.63 Goals Scored 0.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga W

(Home)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

Cook Islands W

(Away)
07 Jun
Cook Islands W
3 : 0
Afghanistan W
03 Jun
Cook Islands W
1 : 0
Afghanistan W
01 Dec
American Samoa W
4 : 0
Cook Islands W
29 Nov
Tahiti W
0 : 1
Cook Islands W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Samoa W 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Cook Islands W 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
3 Tonga W 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Papua New Guinea W 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Tahiti W 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
3 Vanuatu W 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji W 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Solomon Islands W 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 New Caledonia W 2 0 1 1 3:5 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams