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Tonga W vs Vanuatu W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W Logo

Tonga W

0 - 3
FT
Vanuatu W Logo

Vanuatu W

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Simon L.
45' Event
Simon L.
53' Event
Simon L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Tonga W
15%
Draws
28%
Vanuatu W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tonga W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tonga W come out ahead of Vanuatu W on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Tonga W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vanuatu W, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 13%
Vanuatu W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tonga W Vanuatu W
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 8 7
Draws 2 3
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 1.17 0.88
Goals Conceded 3.47 2.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Tonga W vs Vanuatu W
0:3
Feb 10, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Vanuatu W vs Tonga W
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tonga W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96

Vanuatu W Compare

Top Goalscorer Simon L.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tonga W 35 / 100
Vanuatu W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tonga W Vanuatu W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu W let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Vanuatu W's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Tonga W scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tonga W VS Vanuatu W
0.83 Goals Scored 0.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 3
83% Over 1.5 63%
83% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tonga W

(Home)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

Vanuatu W

(Away)
05 Mar
Vanuatu W
0 : 1
Fiji W
02 Mar
New Caledonia W
2 : 1
Vanuatu W
27 Feb
Papua New Guinea W
5 : 0
Vanuatu W
22 Nov
Solomon Islands W
2 : 4
Vanuatu W
20 Nov
Fiji W
3 : 1
Vanuatu W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Papua New Guinea W 3 2 1 0 11:2 7
2 Samoa W 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
3 Tahiti W 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
4 Cook Islands W 3 0 1 2 1:12 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women (Play Offs)
Relegation - OFC Nations Cup Women (5th-8th places)
Relegation - OFC Nations Cup Women (5th-8th places)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Solomon Islands W 3 2 0 1 9:4 6
2 Fiji W 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
3 Vanuatu W 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
4 Tonga W 3 0 0 3 0:11 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women (Play Offs)
Relegation - OFC Nations Cup Women (5th-8th places)
Relegation - OFC Nations Cup Women (5th-8th places)