Sport Picks
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS BMO Field, Toronto, ON 
Match Events
13'
13'
Haile-Selassie M.
18'
18'
Rogers S.
27'
27'
Sargent J.
Assist: Mihailovic D.
AI Match Summary
The MLS game between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire finished 4-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chicago Fire
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Chicago Fire come out ahead of Toronto FC on wins alone.
- Model gives Chicago Fire a 51% chance of winning this.
- Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43.6%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 13%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Toronto FC | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 15 |
| Draws | 11 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.89 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 MLS
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
4:4
May 24, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
2:2
Mar 15, 2025 MLS
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
1:2
Sep 29, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Toronto FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Sargent J.
3 Goals Assists Leader Etienne D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Chicago Fire Compare
Top Goalscorer Haile-Selassie M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lewandowski R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Toronto FC 27 / 100
Chicago Fire 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Toronto FC Chicago Fire
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chicago Fire Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:8
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Toronto FC scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Chicago Fire's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
Toronto FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Toronto FC VS Chicago Fire
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Toronto FC
(Home) 27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
05 Sept
Toronto FC
4 : 4 Chicago Fire
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
05 Sept
Toronto FC
4 : 4 Chicago Fire
29 Aug
Toronto FC
1 : 1 New York City
19 Aug
Toronto FC
3 : 3 Charlotte FC
15 Aug
Toronto FC
2 : 1 New England Revolution
Page 1 of 3
Chicago Fire
(Away) 07 Oct
Chicago Fire
3 : 1 Vancouver Whitecaps
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1 Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0 Chicago Fire
13 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 2 New England Revolution
10 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 1 Inter Miami
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1 Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0 Chicago Fire
05 Sept
Toronto FC
4 : 4 Chicago Fire
29 Aug
Seattle Sounders
2 : 2 Chicago Fire
26 Aug
Monterrey
2 : 1 Chicago Fire
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32:65 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55:21 | 60 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45:36 | 46 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64:50 | 46 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47:38 | 43 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54:44 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48:64 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34:51 | 33 |
| 9 | New York City | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41:36 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55:64 | 33 |
| 11 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34:42 | 30 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39:43 | 29 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39:51 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:45 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34:54 | 24 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
