Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Torreense vs Penafiel

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Drammeh M.
Assist: Quintero L.
20'
Simao I.
21' Event
Vazquez J.

AI Match Summary

Torreense in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Torreense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Torreense
6%
Draws
4%
Penafiel
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Torreense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Penafiel haven't matched Torreense's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Torreense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Torreense Clean Sheet 68%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Torreense Penafiel
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs Penafiel
3:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Torreense
1:0
May 5, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Torreense
0:1
Dec 22, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs Penafiel
0:1
May 16, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Torreense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Torreense Compare

Top Goalscorer Drammeh M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vazquez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Sery J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mere J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Torreense 95 / 100
Penafiel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Torreense Penafiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Torreense's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Penafiel let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Torreense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Torreense VS Penafiel
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Torreense

(Home)
18 Jul
Benfica B
1 : 1
Torreense
15 Jul
Torreense
5 : 0
Academica
28 May
Casa Pia
2 : 0
Torreense
24 May
Sporting CP
1 : 2
Torreense
20 May
Torreense
0 : 0
Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6

Penafiel

(Away)
18 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0
Penafiel
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
5 : 0
Penafiel
17 May
Pacos Ferreira
2 : 1
Penafiel
09 May
Penafiel
1 : 0
Maritimo
04 May
Torreense
3 : 2
Penafiel
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Maritimo34206850:2966
2Academico Viseu34178958:3359
3Torreense341851146:3359
4Vizela341491139:4051
5FC Porto B341561341:4251
6Leiria3413111052:4650
7Leixoes341551446:5550
8Feirense3412101237:4046
9Chaves341361542:4045
10Benfica B3411111243:4444
11FC Felgueiras3411111234:3844
12Lusitania FC3411101344:5243
13Sporting CP B341331841:3442
14Penafiel341181537:3941
15Portimonense341171639:4940
16SC Farense3410101431:3740
17Pacos Ferreira349121334:4839
18Oliveirense348101634:4934
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)