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Torreense vs Penafiel

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Svensson M.
Assist: Carbonell A.
16' Event
Alvarez D.
Assist: Carbonell A.
39'
Jean D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Torreense
20%
Draws
52%
Penafiel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penafiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Penafiel haven't matched Torreense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Penafiel's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Torreense Clean Sheet 22%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Torreense Penafiel
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.4 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs Penafiel
2:2
May 4, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs Penafiel
3:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Torreense
1:0
May 5, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Torreense
0:1
Dec 22, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Torreense vs Penafiel
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Torreense Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jean D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Penafiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Svensson M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alvarez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Torreense 10 / 100
Penafiel 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Torreense Penafiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penafiel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Torreense found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Penafiel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Torreense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Torreense VS Penafiel
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Torreense

(Home)
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2
Torreense
11 Sept
Torreense
0 : 0
Leixoes
05 Sept
Benfica B
0 : 2
Torreense
29 Aug
Torreense
0 : 3
Vizela
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2
Torreense
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Penafiel

(Away)
19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2
Penafiel
12 Sept
FC Felgueiras
1 : 2
Penafiel
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1
Academica
30 Aug
FC Porto B
0 : 3
Penafiel
23 Aug
Penafiel
2 : 0
Sporting CP B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)