Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Monaco

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Teze J.
Assist: Adingra S.
18' Event
Camara L.
Assist: Akliouche M.
31'
Cresswell C.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Toulouse and Monaco finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Toulouse
28%
Draws
22%
Monaco
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Toulouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Toulouse have managed 1.25 goals a game lately — Monaco are scoring more at 2.25.
  • Toulouse are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%
Monaco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Monaco
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.25 2.25
Goals Conceded 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Monaco
2:2
Oct 25, 2025 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
1:0
Mar 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Monaco
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
2:0
Feb 18, 2024 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Russell-Rowe J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Emersonn
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Monaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Teze J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Camara L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 47 / 100
Monaco 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Monaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Toulouse found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Monaco has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Monaco
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
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Monaco

(Away)
25 Jul
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Monaco
18 Jul
Monaco
5 : 2
Saint Priest
17 May
Strasbourg
5 : 4
Monaco
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1
Lille
02 May
Metz
1 : 2
Monaco
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)