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Toulouse W vs Thonon Evian W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Seconde Ligue Women 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Altunkulak S.
79' Event
Lapassouse L.

AI Match Summary

Toulouse W in this Seconde Ligue Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toulouse W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Toulouse W
20%
Draws
64%
Thonon Evian W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Thonon Evian W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Thonon Evian W haven't matched Toulouse W's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Thonon Evian W's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Toulouse W Clean Sheet 11%
Thonon Evian W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse W Thonon Evian W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.07 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Coupe de la Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Toulouse W
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Seconde Ligue Women
Toulouse W vs Thonon Evian W
2:0
Dec 7, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Toulouse W
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Toulouse W
1:3
Sep 15, 2024 Seconde Ligue Women
Toulouse W vs Thonon Evian W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse W Compare

Top Goalscorer Altunkulak S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lapassouse L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Thonon Evian W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse W 10 / 100
Thonon Evian W 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse W Thonon Evian W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Thonon Evian W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse W found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Thonon Evian W let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Thonon Evian W's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse W VS Thonon Evian W
1.88 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse W

(Home)
03 Oct
OL Lyonnes W
5 : 0
Toulouse W
19 Sept
Lens W
2 : 2
Toulouse W
12 Sept
Toulouse W
1 : 2
Le Havre W
05 Sept
Montpellier W
5 : 1
Toulouse W
29 Aug
Thonon Evian W
1 : 0
Toulouse W
Page 1 of 6

Thonon Evian W

(Away)
04 Oct
Cannes W
1 : 0
Thonon Evian W
26 Sept
Marseille W
6 : 1
Thonon Evian W
19 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 2
Metz W
06 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 1
St Etienne W
29 Aug
Thonon Evian W
1 : 0
Toulouse W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toulouse W 22 15 4 3 48:21 49
2 Saint-Malo W 22 12 4 6 34:28 40
3 Le Mans W 22 12 3 7 28:20 39
4 Auxerre W 22 10 5 7 31:25 35
5 Grenoble W 22 9 7 6 31:24 34
6 Lille W 22 9 5 8 31:25 32
7 Thonon Evian W 22 9 4 9 35:29 31
8 Nice W 22 8 5 9 28:31 29
9 Reims W 22 7 6 9 26:33 27
10 Metz W 22 6 4 12 31:42 22
11 Rodez AF W 22 6 4 12 16:32 22
12 Guingamp W 22 2 3 17 17:46 9
Promotion - Premiere Ligue Women (Main)