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TPS vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Veritas Stadion, Turku
TPS Logo

TPS

3 - 0
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Visser K.
Assist: Talo N.
40'
Anini S.
42' Event
Anini S.
Assist: Konkkola M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

TPS in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored TPS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
TPS
6%
Draws
4%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: TPS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • TPS have won more games recently than Mariehamn.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on TPS taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
TPS Clean Sheet 20%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric TPS Mariehamn
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.25 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Veikkausliiga
TPS vs Mariehamn
3:0
Apr 4, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
May 28, 2025 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
3:2
Mar 22, 2024 Club Friendly
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Visser K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Anini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TPS 85 / 100
Mariehamn 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
TPS Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TPS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

TPS scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Away concern: Mariehamn has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

TPS VS Mariehamn
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

TPS

(Home)
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
26 Jul
HJK
1 : 0
TPS
20 Jul
TPS
1 : 3
Ilves
11 Jul
TPS
3 : 0
AC Oulu
04 Jul
SJK
3 : 1
TPS
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
25 Jul
Mariehamn
1 : 1
AC Oulu
20 Jul
Mariehamn
0 : 2
Lahti
11 Jul
Gnistan
4 : 2
Mariehamn
04 Jul
VPS
4 : 0
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 18 11 6 1 33:16 39
2 Inter Turku 18 9 7 2 25:14 34
3 AC Oulu 18 9 3 6 22:21 30
4 HJK 18 8 4 6 28:23 28
5 Gnistan 18 8 4 6 27:22 28
6 VPS 18 7 6 5 24:17 27
7 Lahti 18 7 4 7 22:16 25
8 TPS 18 7 4 7 23:20 25
9 Ilves 18 6 4 8 29:31 22
10 SJK 18 4 5 9 22:27 17
11 Jaro 18 3 6 9 17:35 15
12 Mariehamn 18 0 5 13 9:39 5
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)