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TPS vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Veritas Stadion, Turku
TPS Logo

TPS

3 - 0
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Visser K.
Assist: Talo N.
40'
Anini S.
42' Event
Anini S.
Assist: Konkkola M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

TPS in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored TPS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
TPS
30%
Draws
52%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • TPS have won more games recently than Mariehamn.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Mariehamn taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
TPS Clean Sheet 20%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric TPS Mariehamn
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.2 1.1
Goals Conceded 1 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:0
Aug 1, 2026 Veikkausliiga
TPS vs Mariehamn
3:0
Apr 4, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
May 28, 2025 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Visser K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Anini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TPS 20 / 100
Mariehamn 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
TPS Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: TPS scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: TPS remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

TPS VS Mariehamn
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

TPS

(Home)
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3
Ilves
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
TPS
0 : 0
SJK
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
TPS
0 : 0
Inter Turku
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)