Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

TRA United

2 - 1

Mtibwa Sugar

Our Tip

Match Events

Mkopi S.

Tebandeke C.

31'

Sub

Mapaka A. In: Mugoya K.

Out: Mapaka A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara game between TRA United and Mtibwa Sugar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TRA United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

TRA United

Draws

Mtibwa Sugar

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: TRA United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

TRA United carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans TRA United's way, sitting at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%

TRA United Clean Sheet 68%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	TRA United	Mtibwa Sugar
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	12	6
Draws	9	9
Losses	10	15
Goals Scored	1.13	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.25	2.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

TRA United vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 51% - 45% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Nov 29, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs TRA United

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

May 9, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs TRA United

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 2 - 3

3:0

Dec 1, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

TRA United vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 53% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TRA United Compare

Top Goalscorer Tebandeke C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Chilunda S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Mkopi S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TRA United 95 / 100

Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

TRA United Mtibwa Sugar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TRA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtibwa Sugar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Mtibwa Sugar's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: TRA United stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

TRA United VS Mtibwa Sugar

1.13 Goals Scored 0.88

1.25 Goals Conceded 2.5

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9