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Trapani vs Castrumfavara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale, Erice
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Trapani host Castrumfavara in the Serie D - Group I. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Trapani have averaged 0.9 scored and 1.76 conceded recently, against Castrumfavara's 1.1 scored and 1.52 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.63, favoring Castrumfavara. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Trapani
15%
Draws
12%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Trapani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Castrumfavara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Trapani a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Trapani Clean Sheet 14%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trapani Castrumfavara
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 5 5
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 0.9 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trapani 39 / 100
Castrumfavara 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trapani Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Trapani Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Trapani scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Difficult form: Castrumfavara registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Recent resilience: Trapani stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trapani VS Castrumfavara
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Trapani

(Home)
07 Oct
Trapani
1 : 2
Licata
04 Oct
Trapani
1 : 0
Reggina
27 Sept
USD Ragusa
0 : 1
Trapani
20 Sept
Trapani
1 : 3
Igea Virtus
16 Sept
Nissa
2 : 0
Trapani
Page 1 of 6

Castrumfavara

(Away)
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 15:1 15
2 Vibonese 6 4 1 1 15:5 13
3 Sambiase 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Calcio Avola 6 4 0 2 9:10 12
5 Igea Virtus 6 3 2 1 14:11 11
6 Licata 6 3 2 1 8:8 11
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
8 Milazzo 6 3 0 3 5:8 9
9 Athletic Palermo 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
10 Nissa 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 ASD Modica Calcio 6 2 1 3 6:5 7
12 Lamezia 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
13 Siracusa 6 3 2 1 8:5 4
14 Castrumfavara 6 1 1 4 5:7 4
15 Gela 6 1 2 3 4:6 4
16 USD Ragusa 6 0 2 4 4:9 2
17 Trapani 6 2 0 4 3:10 1
18 Enna 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)