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Trastevere Calcio vs Paganese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
D'Incoronato F.
12' Event
Coquin M.
15' Event
El Haddadi A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between Trastevere Calcio and Paganese finished 1-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paganese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Trastevere Calcio
30%
Draws
23%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Trastevere Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Trastevere Calcio's 1.86 goals per match outpaces what Paganese have produced (1.33).
  • Win probability leans Paganese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Paganese have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Trastevere Calcio Clean Sheet 11%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trastevere Calcio Paganese
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.86 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Trastevere Calcio vs Paganese
1:6
Feb 9, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Trastevere Calcio
2:1
Oct 13, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Trastevere Calcio vs Paganese
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trastevere Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Scaffidi F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Incoronato F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Coquin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trastevere Calcio 10 / 100
Paganese 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trastevere Calcio Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Trastevere Calcio scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Paganese conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Trastevere Calcio has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trastevere Calcio VS Paganese
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Trastevere Calcio

(Home)
04 Oct
Trastevere Calcio
0 : 0
Citta di Anagni
27 Sept
Atl. Lodigiani
2 : 3
Trastevere Calcio
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Ossese
1 : 1
Trastevere Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
Page 1 of 6

Paganese

(Away)
07 Oct
Paganese
1 : 2
Real Normanna
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 11:6 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 10:4 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
6 Trastevere Calcio 6 3 2 1 8:10 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 14:9 10
8 Anzio Calcio 1924 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Budoni Calcio 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
12 Citta di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
14 Afragolese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
17 US Venafro 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
18 Atl. Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 8:17 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)