Sport Picks

San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese

Cailungo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tre Penne play Cailungo in the Campionato Sammarinese. Tre Penne are favorites here. Recently, Tre Penne averaged 2.09 goals scored and 0.59 conceded. Cailungo averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. In past meetings, Tre Penne won 4, Cailungo won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 6:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.06 for Tre Penne and 0.94 for Cailungo. This points to a Tre Penne double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%

Tre Penne

22%

Draws

Cailungo

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tre Penne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Tre Penne picked up more points recently compared to Cailungo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.06 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Tre Penne Clean Sheet 24%

Cailungo Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tre Penne	Cailungo
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	20	2
Draws	9	5
Losses	3	23
Goals Scored	2.09	0.8
Goals Conceded	0.59	2.33
Expected Goals (xG)	3.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese

Tre Penne vs Cailungo

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 0 - 0

6:1

Dec 14, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese

Cailungo vs Tre Penne

Possession: 46% - 56% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Feb 8, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese

Tre Penne vs Cailungo

Possession: 42% - 48% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Oct 22, 2024 Coppa Titano

Tre Penne vs Cailungo

Possession: 50% - 59% Cards: 2 - 1

4:1

Oct 5, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese

Cailungo vs Tre Penne

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 2 - 4

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tre Penne Compare

Top Goalscorer Turchetta G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Errico S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.31

Avg xA / game 1.5

Cailungo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bua A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tre Penne 67 / 100

Cailungo 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tre Penne Cailungo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tre Penne Win (1)

Secondary Pick Tre Penne & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +13.2%

1.64

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tre Penne attacking → ← attacking Cailungo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tre Penne scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Cailungo let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Tre Penne went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Cailungo lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 11

3.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tre Fiori	30	22	7	1	63:13	73
2	Virtus	30	22	6	2	76:20	72
3	Tre Penne	30	21	7	2	71:18	70
4	La Fiorita	30	17	11	2	64:25	57
5	Folgore	30	16	9	5	67:33	57
6	SP Domagnano	30	14	7	9	59:36	49
7	Fiorentino	30	14	4	12	37:42	46
8	SP Cosmos	30	11	9	10	30:23	42
9	Juvenes/Dogana	30	9	10	11	36:38	37
10	AC Libertas	30	9	8	13	32:63	35
11	SS Pennarossa	30	8	8	14	29:53	32
12	San Giovanni	30	7	10	13	24:43	31
13	SC Faetano	30	6	4	20	22:55	22
14	San Marino Academy U22	30	3	7	20	23:60	16
15	Cailungo	30	2	5	23	23:71	11
16	SS Murata	30	1	4	25	20:83	-2