Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Hanbury S.
88'
88'
Hanbury S.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Trefelin advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Risca United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Trefelin carry the better recent record into this one.
- Trefelin are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- Trefelin have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Trefelin, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Trefelin have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 14%
Risca United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Trefelin | Risca United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 41 | 30 |
| Wins | 25 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.34 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.35 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 11, 2022 Cymru South
Risca United vs Trefelin
0:2
Aug 21, 2021 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Risca United
4:0
Aug 7, 2021 League Cup
Trefelin vs Risca United
2:0
Apr 28, 2020 Division 1
Trefelin vs Risca United
0:0
Mar 7, 2020 Division 1
Risca United vs Trefelin
2:7
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Trefelin Compare
Top Goalscorer Hanbury S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.18
Risca United Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Trefelin 35 / 100
Risca United 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Trefelin Risca United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Trefelin's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 41 recent games.
Risca United has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Risca United lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Trefelin VS -
3.5 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
100% Over 2.5 0%
100% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Trefelin
(Home) 26 Sept
Trefelin
1 : 3 TNS
18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1 Trefelin
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4 Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Trefelin
Page 1 of 9
26 Sept
Trefelin
1 : 3 TNS
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4 Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
28 Aug
Trefelin
1 : 1 Ammanford Town
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 5
Risca United
(Away) 21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
02 Apr
Port Talbot
0 : 1 Risca United
04 Mar
Llanelli
1 : 1 Risca United
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Llanidloes Town 2
Gresford 3
Bangor City 4
Holyhead 0
Flint Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Cambrian United 4
Carmarthen Town 1
TBD -
Newtown -
Ruthin Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llandudno FC 4
Denbigh 3
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Guilsfield 1
TBD -
Buckley -
Llangefni 1
Prestatyn 2
TBD -
Cefn Druids -
Conwy Borough -
TBD -
Holywell Town FC 2
Colwyn Bay 1
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
TBD -
Goytre Utd -
Undy -
TBD -
Port Talbot -
Pure Swansea -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Ammanford Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Barry Town -
TBD -
Llanelli 5
Newport 0
Trefelin 2
Taffs Well 0
Llantwit Major 3
Risca United 4
Llanrhaeadr 1
Penrhyncoch 4
TBD -
TNS -
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Afan Lido 0
Briton Ferry 2
Pontypridd United 3
1/16-finals
Gresford 0
Bangor City 1
Flint Town 1
Bala 2
Cambrian United 2
Newtown 4
Ruthin Town 0
Caernarfon 3
Llandudno FC 0
Connahs Q. 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Buckley 2
Prestatyn 3
Cefn Druids 0
Conwy Borough 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Haverfordwest 3
Goytre Utd 0
Undy 2
Pure Swansea 1
Aberystwyth 2
Penybont 1
Ammanford Town 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Barry Town 5
Llanelli 0
Trefelin 2
Risca United 0
Penrhyncoch 2
TNS 1
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Pontypridd United 2
1/8-finals
Bangor City 0
Bala 1
Newtown 5
Caernarfon 0
Connahs Q. 6
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Prestatyn 3
Holywell Town FC 4
Haverfordwest 5
Undy 0
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Barry Town 3
Trefelin 0
Penrhyncoch 1
Pontypridd United 3
Quarter-finals
Bala 3
Newtown 1
Connahs Q. 4
Holywell Town FC 0
Haverfordwest 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Barry Town 7
Pontypridd United 1
Semi-finals
Bala 1
Connahs Q. 4
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Barry Town 2
Final
Connahs Q. 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
