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Stadium Background

Treowen vs Caerphilly

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hillman T.
5' Event
Hillman T.
47' Event
Evans M.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Treowen and Caerphilly finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Treowen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Treowen
20%
Draws
40%
Caerphilly
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Treowen come out ahead of Caerphilly on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Treowen Clean Sheet 11%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treowen Caerphilly
Matches Played 31 13
Wins 15 3
Draws 5 2
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.97 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.87 2.15
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Caerphilly
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Hillman T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Evans M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Caerphilly Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treowen 30 / 100
Caerphilly 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treowen Caerphilly

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Treowen scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Caerphilly's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 13 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Treowen remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Treowen VS Caerphilly
2.25 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Treowen

(Home)
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 7

Caerphilly

(Away)
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2
Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)