Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Treowen vs Llantwit Major

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Tweedy T.
40' Event
Davies C.
(Penalty)
63'
Evans J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Treowen
20%
Draws
29%
Llantwit Major
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Treowen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Treowen lately — more wins on the board than Llantwit Major.
  • Treowen are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Treowen Clean Sheet 17%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treowen Llantwit Major
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.93 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Llantwit Major
1:1
Mar 3, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Treowen
3:2
Nov 1, 2025 Cymru South
Treowen vs Llantwit Major
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treowen Compare

Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Llantwit Major Compare

Top Goalscorer Tweedy T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treowen 84 / 100
Llantwit Major 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treowen Llantwit Major

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Treowen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Treowen scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Llantwit Major has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Treowen remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Treowen VS Llantwit Major
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Treowen

(Home)
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

Llantwit Major

(Away)
26 Sept
Llantwit Major
2 : 0
Llanelli
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0
Llantwit Major
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)