Sport Picks
Treowen vs Pontypridd United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 
Match Events
41'
41'
Stephens J.
58'
58'
Green L.
1'
1'
Hodges C.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Pontypridd United in this FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pontypridd United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Pontypridd United have won more games recently than Treowen.
- Win probability leans Pontypridd United's way, sitting at 50%.
- Pontypridd United arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Pontypridd United, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Pontypridd United have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Treowen | Pontypridd United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.83 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 Cymru South
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
2:2
Nov 22, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Treowen vs Pontypridd United
1:2
Oct 3, 2025 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Treowen
5:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Treowen Compare
Top Goalscorer Green L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Pontypridd United Compare
Top Goalscorer Stephens J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Treowen 22 / 100
Pontypridd United 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Treowen Pontypridd United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Pontypridd United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Treowen found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Games between these two average 4.75 goals.
Pontypridd United has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Treowen went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Treowen VS Pontypridd United
2.13 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Treowen
(Home) 03 Oct
Treowen
1 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1 Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1 Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2 Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Treowen
1 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1 Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Treowen
3 : 0 Caerphilly
01 Aug
Treowen
2 : 3 Pontypridd United
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 4
Pontypridd United
(Away) 06 Oct
Pontypridd United
4 : 1 Llantwit Major
03 Oct
Pontypridd United
1 : 3 Aberystwyth
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1 Afan Lido
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4 Pontypridd United
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4 Pontypridd United
01 Aug
Treowen
2 : 3 Pontypridd United
11 Apr
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
