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Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Newman Jones A.
45' Event
Perrett D.
78' Event
Ferreira N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Trethomas Bluebirds
30%
Draws
33%
Caerphilly
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Trethomas Bluebirds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Trethomas Bluebirds have won more games recently than Caerphilly.
  • Trethomas Bluebirds are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 13%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trethomas Bluebirds Caerphilly
Matches Played 30 13
Wins 6 3
Draws 10 2
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.53 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.2 2.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trethomas Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Newman Jones A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Caerphilly Compare

Top Goalscorer Perrett D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trethomas Bluebirds 39 / 100
Caerphilly 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trethomas Bluebirds Caerphilly

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Trethomas Bluebirds Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Caerphilly conceded in 85% of 13 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Trethomas Bluebirds scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Trethomas Bluebirds has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Trethomas Bluebirds VS Caerphilly
1.63 Goals Scored 1
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trethomas Bluebirds

(Home)
26 Sept
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2
Afan Lido
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
Page 1 of 6

Caerphilly

(Away)
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2
Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)