Sport Picks
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Carmarthen Town
Wales
Cymru South 2025/2026 
Match Events
29'
29'
Newman Jones A.
31'
31'
Thomas L.
(Penalty)
35'
35'
Harling L.
AI Match Summary
Carmarthen Town in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carmarthen Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Trethomas Bluebirds
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Carmarthen Town have won more games recently than Trethomas Bluebirds.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Trethomas Bluebirds taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Trethomas Bluebirds | Carmarthen Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.21 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds
2:3
Mar 6, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Carmarthen Town
4:5
Nov 8, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds
5:1
Dec 28, 2024 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Carmarthen Town
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Trethomas Bluebirds Compare
Top Goalscorer Shaw J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hood J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Carmarthen Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Harling L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Reed L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Trethomas Bluebirds 74 / 100
Carmarthen Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Trethomas Bluebirds Carmarthen Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Trethomas Bluebirds Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Carmarthen Town conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
Trethomas Bluebirds found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Recent resilience: Trethomas Bluebirds stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Trethomas Bluebirds VS Carmarthen Town
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Trethomas Bluebirds
(Home) 04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2 Caerphilly
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2 Afan Lido
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2 Caerphilly
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2 Afan Lido
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
23 Jun
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 3 Penybont
Page 1 of 3
Carmarthen Town
(Away) 25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2 Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3 Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4 Treowen
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1 Carmarthen Town
28 Mar
Baglan Dragons
0 : 7 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)
