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Stadium Background

Trevigliese vs Rovato Vertovese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Trevigliese play Rovato Vertovese in the Serie D - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Trevigliese averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Rovato Vertovese averaged 1.06 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Trevigliese won 0, Rovato Vertovese won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.44 for Trevigliese and 1.25 for Rovato Vertovese. This points to a Rovato Vertovese double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Trevigliese
28%
Draws
55%
Rovato Vertovese
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Rovato Vertovese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Trevigliese picked up more points recently compared to Rovato Vertovese.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.44 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Trevigliese Clean Sheet 19%
Rovato Vertovese Clean Sheet 23%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trevigliese Rovato Vertovese
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 3 14
Draws 8 9
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.8 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.8 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Trevigliese vs Rovato Vertovese
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Rovato Vertovese vs Trevigliese
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trevigliese Compare

Top Goalscorer Nchama V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Rovato Vertovese Compare

Top Goalscorer Lleshaj V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trevigliese 19 / 100
Rovato Vertovese 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trevigliese Rovato Vertovese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rovato Vertovese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Rovato Vertovese & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +88.9%
11.11
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Trevigliese attacking → ← attacking Rovato Vertovese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trevigliese scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Rovato Vertovese let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Trevigliese went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Rovato Vertovese lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 51
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Desenzano Calvina34238360:2177
2Lentigione34227551:2373
3Pistoiese342011361:2271
4Piacenza34197860:3564
5Pro Palazzolo34169944:3157
6Pro Sesto341510945:3055
7Cittadella Vis Modena341510935:2955
8Rovato Vertovese3414101035:2952
9Sangiuliano City341481241:4547
10SCD Progresso341091538:4239
11Sant'Angelo341091538:5139
12Correggese349121335:3639
13Crema349111435:4738
14Imolese348101628:4734
15Sasso Marconi34871933:4931
16Tropical Coriano347101729:4531
17Trevigliese34582131:6223
18Tuttocuoio34082618:738