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Treze PB vs Santa Cruz de Natal

Brazil Brazil

Serie D 2025
Treze PB Logo

Treze PB

1 - 2
FT
Santa Cruz de Natal Logo

Santa Cruz de Natal

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Treze PB play Santa Cruz de Natal in the Serie D 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Treze PB averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. Santa Cruz de Natal averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Treze PB won 3, Santa Cruz de Natal won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 19, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Treze PB and 1.06 for Santa Cruz de Natal. This points to a Treze PB double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Treze PB
15%
Draws
36%
Santa Cruz de Natal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Treze PB

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Treze PB picked up more points recently compared to Santa Cruz de Natal.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Treze PB Clean Sheet 22%
Santa Cruz de Natal Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Treze PB Santa Cruz de Natal
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.29 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2025 Serie D
Treze PB vs Santa Cruz de Natal
1:2
May 24, 2025 Serie D
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Treze PB
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 Club Friendly
Treze PB vs Santa Cruz de Natal
2:0
Jul 21, 2024 Serie D
Treze PB vs Santa Cruz de Natal
2:0
Apr 27, 2024 Serie D
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Treze PB
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Treze PB Compare

Top Goalscorer Schutz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Santa Cruz de Natal Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Bambu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Treze PB 49 / 100
Santa Cruz de Natal 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Treze PB Santa Cruz de Natal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Treze PB or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Treze PB attacking → ← attacking Santa Cruz de Natal

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Treze PB scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Santa Cruz de Natal let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Treze PB went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz de Natal lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 32
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tuna Luso1483324:1027
2Manauara1475227:1126
3Manaus FC1465321:1723
4Independencia Futebol Clube1463518:1921
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6Trem1453623:2418
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1AE Altos1475222:1426
2Imperatriz1473417:1524
3Sampaio Correa1456317:1121
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5Iguatu1453615:1518
6Tocantinopolis1436511:1715
7Parnahyba1435616:2214
8Maracana1433812:2212
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1America RN1483321:927
2Santa Cruz1483320:1027
3Central SC1475215:726
4Ferroviario1453615:1918
5Horizonte1452714:1717
6Santa Cruz de Natal1452713:2017
7Treze PB144197:2013
8Sousa1433811:1412
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1ASA1494127:831
2Lagarto1472520:1623
3Sergipe1464416:1022
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1Portuguesa1493222:1330
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3Agua Santa1463520:1821
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1Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1482420:1026
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7Sao Luiz1441910:2013
8Azuriz143476:1413