Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Triestina vs Novara

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Nereo Rocco, Trieste
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Tonetto M.
46'
Sub
Alberti T. In: da Graca C.
Out: Alberti T.
56'
Sub
Faggioli A. In: Kljajic N.
Out: Faggioli A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A game between Triestina and Novara finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Novara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Triestina
39%
Draws
31%
Novara
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Novara come out ahead of Triestina on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Triestina Clean Sheet 68%
Novara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Triestina Novara
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 6 13
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 1.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Triestina
0:0
Apr 25, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
6:0
Dec 14, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Triestina
2:3
Apr 20, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Triestina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Novara Compare

Top Goalscorer da Graca C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Triestina 41 / 100
Novara 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Triestina Novara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TRI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Triestina scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Novara let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Triestina has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Triestina VS Novara
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Triestina

(Home)
25 Apr
Triestina
1 : 6
Vicenza
19 Apr
AlbinoLeffe
3 : 0
Triestina
11 Apr
Triestina
2 : 0
Giana Erminio
06 Apr
Pro Patria
1 : 1
Triestina
28 Mar
Triestina
5 : 0
Virtus Verona
Page 1 of 6

Novara

(Away)
26 Jul
Novara
2 : 1
Inter U23
25 Apr
Ospitaletto
0 : 2
Novara
19 Apr
Novara
0 : 1
Cittadella
11 Apr
Vicenza
3 : 1
Novara
03 Apr
Novara
1 : 3
Lumezzane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vicenza38278369:2689
2Union Brescia381912749:2469
3Renate381713853:3764
4Lecco3818101047:3464
5Trento381615758:4263
6Cittadella381781345:4359
7Lumezzane3814141046:3956
8Alcione Milano3815101335:2855
9Arzignano381581550:4853
10Giana Erminio3814101438:3952
11AlbinoLeffe3813111451:4950
12Inter U233812121440:4148
13Novara38920940:3947
14Pro Vercelli381371839:5546
15Ospitaletto3810151341:4345
16Pergolettese3810111737:5041
17Dolomiti Bellunesi3810101838:6140
18Virtus Verona383161934:6225
19Pro Patria384112334:7023
20Triestina38992045:5912
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)