Sport Picks
Match Events
19'
19'
Tonetto M.
46'
46'
Sub
Alberti T. In: da Graca C.
Out: Alberti T.
56'
56'
Sub
Faggioli A. In: Kljajic N.
Out: Faggioli A.
AI Match Summary
The Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 game between Triestina and Novara finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Novara.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Novara come out ahead of Triestina on wins alone.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Triestina taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Triestina Clean Sheet 20%
Novara Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Triestina | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 16 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 15, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Triestina
0:0
Apr 25, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
6:0
Dec 14, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Triestina
2:3
Apr 20, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Triestina vs Novara
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Triestina Compare
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.49
Novara Compare
Top Goalscorer da Graca C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Triestina 42 / 100
Novara 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Triestina Novara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Triestina scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Novara let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
Triestina has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Triestina VS Novara
0.86 Goals Scored 1
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.13
86% Over 1.5 50%
29% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Triestina
(Home) 04 Oct
Triestina
2 : 0 FC Obermais
27 Sept
Cjarlins Muzane
3 : 0 Triestina
20 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1 Bassano Virtus
16 Sept
Campodarsego
2 : 1 Triestina
13 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1 Calvi Noale
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Triestina
2 : 0 FC Obermais
20 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1 Bassano Virtus
13 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1 Calvi Noale
25 Apr
Triestina
1 : 6 Vicenza
11 Apr
Triestina
2 : 0 Giana Erminio
Page 1 of 3
Novara
(Away) 04 Oct
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1 : 2 Novara
26 Sept
Novara
0 : 2 Ospitaletto
20 Sept
Novara
2 : 2 Carpi
17 Sept
Lumezzane
0 : 0 Novara
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1 Pergolettese
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1 : 2 Novara
17 Sept
Lumezzane
0 : 0 Novara
07 Sept
Renate
1 : 2 Novara
22 Aug
Juventus U23
1 : 0 Novara
16 Aug
Alcione Milano
0 : 1 Novara
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicenza | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 69:26 | 89 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 49:24 | 69 |
| 3 | Renate | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53:37 | 64 |
| 4 | Lecco | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 47:34 | 64 |
| 5 | Trento | 38 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 58:42 | 63 |
| 6 | Cittadella | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 45:43 | 59 |
| 7 | Lumezzane | 38 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 46:39 | 56 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 35:28 | 55 |
| 9 | Arzignano | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 50:48 | 53 |
| 10 | Giana Erminio | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 38:39 | 52 |
| 11 | AlbinoLeffe | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 51:49 | 50 |
| 12 | Inter U23 | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 40:41 | 48 |
| 13 | Novara | 38 | 9 | 20 | 9 | 40:39 | 47 |
| 14 | Pro Vercelli | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 39:55 | 46 |
| 15 | Ospitaletto | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 41:43 | 45 |
| 16 | Pergolettese | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 37:50 | 41 |
| 17 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 38:61 | 40 |
| 18 | Virtus Verona | 38 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 34:62 | 25 |
| 19 | Pro Patria | 38 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 34:70 | 23 |
| 20 | Triestina | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 45:59 | 12 |
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
