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Tritones Vallarta vs Tapachula

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event

AI Match Summary

Tritones Vallarta in this Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Tritones Vallarta
30%
Draws
47%
Tapachula
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tapachula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tritones Vallarta lately — more wins on the board than Tapachula.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Tapachula taking it.
  • Tritones Vallarta have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tritones Vallarta, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 19%
Tapachula Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tritones Vallarta Tapachula
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 3 2
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.2 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Tritones Vallarta
1:1
Apr 15, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Tritones Vallarta vs Tapachula
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tritones Vallarta 24 / 100
Tapachula 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tritones Vallarta Tapachula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tapachula Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapachula has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Tritones Vallarta's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Tritones Vallarta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tritones Vallarta VS Tapachula
1 Goals Scored 2.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tritones Vallarta

(Home)
25 Apr
Deportiva Venados
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
22 Apr
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 1
Deportiva Venados
19 Apr
Tapachula
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
15 Apr
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 0
Tapachula
11 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
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Tapachula

(Away)
19 Apr
Tapachula
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
15 Apr
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 0
Tapachula
12 Apr
Tapachula
4 : 0
Dragones Toluca
28 Mar
Canoneros FC
1 : 2
Tapachula
21 Mar
Tapachula
2 : 1
Pioneros
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Racing de Veracruz -
TBD -
Tigres de Alica 2
Halcones de Zapopan 3
Alacranes de Durango -
TBD -
FC Santiago 3
Zacatepec 4
Deportiva Venados 3
Calor De San Pedro 1
Tapachula 1
Tritones Vallarta 2
Apodaca -
TBD -
Tecos 0
Inter Playa Del Carmen 2
Quarter-finals
Racing de Veracruz 0
Halcones de Zapopan 2
Alacranes de Durango 3
Zacatepec 3
Deportiva Venados 2
Tritones Vallarta 1
Apodaca 3
Inter Playa Del Carmen 1
Semi-finals
Halcones de Zapopan 1
Alacranes de Durango 2
Deportiva Venados 5
Apodaca 3
Final
Alacranes de Durango 1
Deportiva Venados 2