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Troina vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Gagliardi M.
88' Event
Uliano F.
90' Event
Faella A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2021/2022 game between Troina and Gelbison finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Troina
15%
Draws
48%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gelbison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Gelbison carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Troina are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gelbison have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Troina Clean Sheet 16%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Troina Gelbison
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 17
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2022 Serie D - Group I
Troina vs Gelbison
0:3
Dec 22, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Troina
5:1
Mar 7, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Troina
3:1
Oct 18, 2020 Serie D - Group I
Troina vs Gelbison
1:0
Jan 21, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Troina vs Gelbison
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Troina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Gagliardi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Uliano F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Troina 48 / 100
Gelbison 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Troina Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Troina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Troina's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Gelbison has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Troina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Gelbison
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Troina

(Home)
22 May
San Luca
4 : 5
Troina
15 May
Troina
0 : 3
Gelbison
08 May
Licata
0 : 0
Troina
04 May
Troina
2 : 1
Castrovillari
01 May
Sancataldese
1 : 0
Troina
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Gelbison

(Away)
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Enna
0 : 1
Gelbison
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gelbison 36 23 9 4 63:23 78
2 Cavese 36 23 8 5 58:21 77
3 AS Acireale 36 19 12 5 58:31 69
4 Lamezia Terme 36 20 9 7 58:35 69
5 S. Agata 36 16 12 8 47:31 60
6 Paterno 36 14 10 12 45:41 52
7 Cittanovese 36 16 4 16 48:56 52
8 Santa Maria Cilento 36 14 9 13 58:50 51
9 Licata 36 13 11 12 57:45 50
10 Real Normanna 36 13 10 13 36:34 49
11 Portici 1906 36 12 8 16 42:44 44
12 Trapani 36 9 14 13 44:47 41
13 San Luca 36 9 14 13 45:52 41
14 Sancataldese 36 11 7 18 34:60 40
15 ASD Giarre 36 9 12 15 33:42 39
16 Castrovillari 36 9 11 16 39:48 38
17 Rende 36 9 9 18 35:50 36
18 Troina 36 9 8 19 39:71 29
19 Biancavilla 36 3 5 28 25:83 14
20 FC Messina 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2021/2022 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2021/2022 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2021/2022 (Play Out)