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Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene

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Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tukums 2000 2 play FK Smiltene in the Nakotnes liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tukums 2000 2 averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.63 conceded. FK Smiltene averaged 1 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Tukums 2000 2 won 2, FK Smiltene won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Tukums 2000 2 and 1.81 for FK Smiltene. This points to a FK Smiltene double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Tukums 2000 2
33%
Draws
40%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: FK Smiltene

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Tukums 2000 2 demonstrates higher offensive output (1.5 avg goals) than FK Smiltene (1 avg goals).
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for FK Smiltene.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Nakotnes liga provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Tukums 2000 2 Clean Sheet 11%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tukums 2000 2 FK Smiltene
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 7 7
Draws 3 7
Losses 21 20
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 2.63 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Tukums 2000 2
0:3
May 24, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:2
Apr 28, 2024 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Tukums 2000 2
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tukums 2000 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaira D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

FK Smiltene Compare

Top Goalscorer Fezui A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tukums 2000 2 27 / 100
FK Smiltene 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tukums 2000 2 FK Smiltene

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SMI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 2 scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

FK Smiltene let in goals in 85% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Tukums 2000 2 went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FK Smiltene lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tukums 2000 2 VS FK Smiltene
1.5 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FK Metta12101142:1131
2Valmiera1292132:1229
3Riga Mariners1284025:1028
4Leevon PPK1273220:1524
5Alberts JDFS1262425:2020
6Marupe1261522:1519
7Super Nova 21254319:1719
8Riga FC 21251619:2216
9Skanste1141620:2113
10RFS 21223715:269
11Tukums 2000 21222816:318
12JFK Ventspils1114612:207
13Rezekne1212910:365
14FK Smiltene1204812:334