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Stadium Background

Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Tukuma pilsētas stadions, Tukums
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Match Events

35' Event
Oloko E.
Assist: Samoilovs B.
41' Event
Gastaldelo L.
Assist: Samoilovs B.
46'
Sub
Gastaldelo L. In: Deruzinskis R.
Out: Gastaldelo L.

AI Match Summary

Tukums 2000 in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tukums 2000.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tukums 2000
20%
Draws
40%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Tukums 2000 at 1.45 per game, Ogre United at 1.13.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 15%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tukums 2000 Ogre United
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 5
Draws 8 5
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1.45 1.13
Goals Conceded 2 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
2:1
Jun 26, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
3:2
May 7, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
6:1
Mar 15, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Gastaldelo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Cudars K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tukums 2000 31 / 100
Ogre United 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tukums 2000 Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tukums 2000 scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Ogre United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Ogre United's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tukums 2000 VS Ogre United
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 2.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tukums 2000

(Home)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)