Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Tukuma pilsētas stadions, Tukums
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Derkach M.
Assist: Samoilovs B.
45'
Stals M.
45' Event
Lizunovs V.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Super Nova in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Super Nova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Tukums 2000
15%
Draws
59%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Tukums 2000 haven't matched Super Nova's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Super Nova's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 12%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tukums 2000 Super Nova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.48 1
Goals Conceded 2 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Latvian Cup
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
Jul 1, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
May 11, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Tukums 2000
1:1
Mar 22, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Super Nova
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Derkach M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Skadmanis K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tukums 2000 14 / 100
Super Nova 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tukums 2000 Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Super Nova's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Tukums 2000 remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tukums 2000 VS Super Nova
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tukums 2000

(Home)
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
08 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
02 Aug
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
FK Liepaja
27 Jul
Tukums 2000
0 : 1
RFS
18 Jul
Riga FC
3 : 1
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
16 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 1
RFS
09 Aug
Super Nova
1 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Super Nova
2 : 0
Grobina
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 26 21 3 2 65:20 66
2 Riga FC 26 20 5 1 79:24 65
3 FK Auda Riga 25 15 4 6 42:26 49
4 BFC Daugavpils 27 10 7 10 33:31 37
5 FK Liepaja 26 11 4 11 36:38 37
6 Jelgava 27 7 7 13 28:46 28
7 Super Nova 25 8 4 13 26:37 28
8 Grobina 27 4 9 14 19:50 21
9 Tukums 2000 27 4 8 15 40:54 20
10 Ogre United 26 3 5 18 26:68 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)