Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tuna Luso vs Castanhal

Brazil Brazil

Copa Grao Para 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Rangel P.
(Penalty)
79' Event
Sousa E.
87' Event
Sousa E.

AI Match Summary

Tuna Luso in this Copa Grao Para 2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Tuna Luso
20%
Draws
44%
Castanhal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castanhal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Tuna Luso have won more games recently than Castanhal.
  • Model gives Tuna Luso a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Tuna Luso have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tuna Luso, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 20%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuna Luso Castanhal
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.47 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.45 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Castanhal
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
3:4
Feb 16, 2025 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2
Feb 4, 2024 Paraense
Castanhal vs Tuna Luso
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuna Luso Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.72

Castanhal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuna Luso 42 / 100
Castanhal 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuna Luso Castanhal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuna Luso found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Castanhal let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Tuna Luso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tuna Luso VS Castanhal
1.5 Goals Scored 0.6
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.4
88% Over 1.5 40%
50% Over 2.5 40%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Tuna Luso

(Home)
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2
Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
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Castanhal

(Away)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Tuna Luso -
TBD -
Castanhal 3
Capitao Poco 1
Aguia De Maraba -
TBD -
Bragantino PA 4
Santa Rosa 1
Semi-finals
Tuna Luso 2
Castanhal 1
Aguia De Maraba 3
Bragantino PA 2
Final
Tuna Luso 1
Aguia De Maraba 2