Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Francisco Vasques
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Marcio
90'
Romarinho

AI Match Summary

Tuna Luso in this Paraense matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tuna Luso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tuna Luso
40%
Draws
29%
Sao Francisco
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Tuna Luso has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Sao Francisco.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Paraense provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Francisco Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuna Luso Sao Francisco
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.38 0.33
Goals Conceded 1.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Paraense
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
1:0
Feb 24, 2025 Paraense
Sao Francisco vs Tuna Luso
2:1
Apr 11, 2024 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
2:1
Mar 17, 2024 Paraense
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
3:1
Mar 9, 2024 Paraense
Sao Francisco vs Tuna Luso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuna Luso Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sao Francisco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.3
Avg xA / game 0.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuna Luso 32 / 100
Sao Francisco 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuna Luso Sao Francisco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuna Luso scored in 79% of their last 34 games.

Sao Francisco let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Tuna Luso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sao Francisco lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tuna Luso VS Sao Francisco
1.38 Goals Scored 0.33
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 33%
63% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cameta63218:411
2Capitao Poco63129:610
3Paysandu PA63126:410
4Aguia De Maraba63128:710
5Remo62409:510
6Tuna Luso63033:59
7Castanhal62224:58
8Santa Rosa62134:77
9Sao Raimundo PA61326:86
10Amazonia IFC61327:116
11Bragantino PA61236:75
12Sao Francisco61234:55