Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Francisco Vasques, Belem
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Marcio
90'
Romarinho

AI Match Summary

Tuna Luso in this Paraense matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tuna Luso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Tuna Luso
35%
Draws
19%
Sao Francisco
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tuna Luso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Tuna Luso have won more games recently than Sao Francisco.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Francisco Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tuna Luso Sao Francisco
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.35 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Paraense
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
1:0
Feb 24, 2025 Paraense
Sao Francisco vs Tuna Luso
2:1
Apr 11, 2024 Copa Grao Para
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
2:1
Mar 17, 2024 Paraense
Tuna Luso vs Sao Francisco
3:1
Mar 9, 2024 Paraense
Sao Francisco vs Tuna Luso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tuna Luso Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sao Francisco Compare

Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tuna Luso 32 / 100
Sao Francisco 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tuna Luso Sao Francisco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuna Luso found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Sao Francisco conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Tuna Luso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tuna Luso VS Sao Francisco
1.38 Goals Scored 0.33
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 33%
63% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tuna Luso

(Home)
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2
Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
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Sao Francisco

(Away)
15 Feb
Sao Raimundo PA
0 : 0
Sao Francisco
11 Feb
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Sao Francisco
08 Feb
Sao Francisco
1 : 2
Cameta
04 Feb
Santa Rosa
1 : 0
Sao Francisco
31 Jan
Sao Francisco
0 : 0
Remo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameta 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
2 Capitao Poco 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Paysandu PA 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
4 Aguia De Maraba 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
5 Remo 6 2 4 0 9:5 10
6 Tuna Luso 6 3 0 3 3:5 9
7 Castanhal 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
8 Santa Rosa 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
9 Sao Raimundo PA 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
10 Amazonia IFC 6 1 3 2 7:11 6
11 Bragantino PA 6 1 2 3 6:7 5
12 Sao Francisco 6 1 2 3 4:5 5
Promotion - Paraense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 2027 (Main)