Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tunisia vs Mali - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tunisia host Mali in the Friendly International. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Tunisia at 1.41 goals for, 1.56 against; Mali at 1.17 for, 0.52 against. Head-to-head, Tunisia have won 1 to Mali's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Oct 3, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.69 xG vs 1.44) point toward Mali. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Tunisia
35%
Draws
52%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Mali carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Mali are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Tunisia Clean Sheet 16%
Mali Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tunisia Mali
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.41 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.56 0.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Friendly International
Tunisia vs Mali
0:0
Jan 3, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Tunisia
2:1
Jan 20, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia vs Mali
1:1
Mar 29, 2022 World Championship
Tunisia vs Mali
0:0
Mar 25, 2022 World Championship
Mali vs Tunisia
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tunisia 10 / 100
Mali 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tunisia Mali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tunisia scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Mali let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Tunisia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tunisia VS Mali
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tunisia

(Home)
28 Sept
Tunisia
2 : 2
Botswana
24 Sept
Tunisia
1 : 1
Uganda
25 Jun
Tunisia
1 : 3
Netherlands
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
15 Jun
Sweden
5 : 1
Tunisia
Page 1 of 6

Mali

(Away)
04 Oct
Morocco
1 : 1
Mali
29 Sept
Liberia
0 : 1
Mali
25 Sept
Mali
3 : 1
Cape Verde
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
Page 1 of 6