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Tupa vs Independente SP - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Tupa Logo

Tupa

0 - 2
FT
Independente SP Logo

Independente SP

Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Breno Liborge
90' Event
Niltton I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Tupa
15%
Draws
64%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independente SP come out ahead of Tupa on wins alone.
  • Independente SP are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Independente SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Independente SP have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Tupa Clean Sheet 10%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tupa Independente SP
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 20
Draws 4 2
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.33 2.4
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:0
Jun 28, 2026 Paulista B
Tupa vs Independente SP
0:2
Feb 6, 2014 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tupa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Liborge
1 Goals
Assists Leader Niltton I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tupa 10 / 100
Independente SP 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tupa Independente SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente SP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tupa's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Independente SP let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Tupa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tupa VS Independente SP
1 Goals Scored 3.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tupa

(Home)
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0
Tupa
28 Jun
Tupa
0 : 2
Independente SP
20 Jun
Tupa
1 : 2
Santa Fe SP
14 Jun
Riopretano
0 : 1
Tupa
06 Jun
America SP
3 : 1
Tupa
Page 1 of 6

Independente SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3