Sport Picks

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Tupa vs Independente SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Breno Liborge
90' Event
Niltton I.

AI Match Summary

Tupa play Independente SP in the Paulista B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tupa averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Independente SP averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. In past meetings, Tupa won 0, Independente SP won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Tupa and 1.69 for Independente SP. This points to a Independente SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Tupa
6%
Draws
90%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Independente SP has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Tupa.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Independente SP.
  • Cup tournament structure in Paulista B increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Tupa Clean Sheet 13%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tupa Independente SP
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 13 16
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.5 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:0
Jun 28, 2026 Paulista B
Tupa vs Independente SP
0:2
Feb 6, 2014 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tupa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Liborge
1 Goals
Assists Leader Niltton I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tupa 10 / 100
Independente SP 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tupa Independente SP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tupa scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Independente SP let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Tupa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Independente SP lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tupa VS Independente SP
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Itaqua6
Paulinia FU1
Maua FC3
Uniao Mogi5
Independente SP4
Tupa0
Paulinense3
Sao Carlos0
Jose Bonifacio EC4
Manthiqueira1
America SP3
Santacruzense0
Flamengo SP2
Audax-SP1
Matonense1
Assisense0
Quarter-finals
Itaqua-
Uniao Mogi-
Independente SP-
Paulinense-
Jose Bonifacio EC-
America SP-
Flamengo SP-
Matonense-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-