Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tupapa vs PNG Hekari

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Champions League 2025 National Stadium, Honiara
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Lucas Santos
27' Event
Naime R.
36' Event
Naime R.

AI Match Summary

PNG Hekari in this OFC Champions League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-9 — backing the pre-match view that favored PNG Hekari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tupapa
20%
Draws
40%
PNG Hekari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tupapa lately — more wins on the board than PNG Hekari.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Tupapa taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this OFC Champions League 2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 49%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Tupapa Clean Sheet 10%
PNG Hekari Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tupapa PNG Hekari
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 2.15 1.43
Goals Conceded 3.7 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.86 2.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 OFC Champions League
Tupapa vs PNG Hekari
0:9

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tupapa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.93

PNG Hekari Compare

Top Goalscorer Naime R.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Eddie N.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.03
Avg xA / game 1.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tupapa 38 / 100
PNG Hekari 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tupapa PNG Hekari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tupapa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 9.00 goals per match.

Tupapa's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: PNG Hekari conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

PNG Hekari's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tupapa VS PNG Hekari
1.6 Goals Scored 1.25
3.2 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
80% Over 2.5 88%
60% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tupapa

(Home)
15 Aug
Tupapa
1 : 7
ABM Galaxy
12 Aug
Rewa
4 : 2
Tupapa
09 Aug
Lae City
4 : 1
Tupapa
06 Feb
Pago Youth
0 : 3
Tupapa
03 Feb
Tupapa
1 : 1
Vaivase-Tai
Page 1 of 6

PNG Hekari

(Away)
13 May
Solomon Kings
3 : 0
PNG Hekari
10 May
Tahiti United
2 : 2
PNG Hekari
07 May
Vanuatu United
3 : 1
PNG Hekari
18 Apr
South Melbourne
1 : 2
PNG Hekari
15 Apr
Auckland FC 2
2 : 0
PNG Hekari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
2 Tiga Sport 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
3 Pirae 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
4 Rewa 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - OFC Champions League 2025 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PNG Hekari 3 2 1 0 13:1 7
2 Ifira Blackbird 3 1 2 0 5:2 5
3 Central Coast 3 1 1 1 8:4 4
4 Tupapa 3 0 0 3 0:19 0
Promotion - OFC Champions League 2025 (Play Offs: 1/2-finals)