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World Championship 2026 Ashgabat Stadium

Uzbekistan

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Turkmenistan play Uzbekistan in the World Championship 2026. Uzbekistan are favorites here. Recently, Turkmenistan averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Uzbekistan averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Turkmenistan won 0, Uzbekistan won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 2, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.07 for Turkmenistan and 1.76 for Uzbekistan. This points to a Uzbekistan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Turkmenistan

15%

Draws

63%

Uzbekistan

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Uzbekistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Turkmenistan picked up more points recently compared to Uzbekistan.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.07 vs 1.76 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Turkmenistan Clean Sheet 12%

Uzbekistan Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Turkmenistan	Uzbekistan
Matches Played	28	33
Wins	6	19
Draws	5	7
Losses	17	7
Goals Scored	0.93	1.61
Goals Conceded	1.79	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.40	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.40	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup

Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan

Possession: 40% - 60% Cards: 4 - 2

1:2

Jun 6, 2024 World Championship

Uzbekistan vs Turkmenistan

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 0 - 4

3:1

Nov 16, 2023 World Championship

Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan

Possession: 46% - 51% Cards: 0 - 0

1:3

Jun 14, 2023 CAFA Nations Cup

Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan

Possession: 46% - 60% Cards: 0 - 2

0:2

Jan 13, 2019 Asian Cup

Turkmenistan vs Uzbekistan

Possession: 58% - 60% Cards: 3 - 3

0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turkmenistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Durdyyev M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.08

Avg xA / game 0.7

Uzbekistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Shukurov O.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Shomurodov E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turkmenistan 22 / 100

Uzbekistan 60 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uzbekistan Win (2)

Secondary Pick Uzbekistan & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +57.1%

7.14

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Turkmenistan attacking → ← attacking Uzbekistan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turkmenistan scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Uzbekistan let in goals in 52% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Turkmenistan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Uzbekistan lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 64

1.40 Goals expected (xG) 2.13

1.40 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Qatar	6	5	1	0	18:3	16
2	Kuwait	6	2	1	3	6:6	7
3	Afghanistan	6	1	2	3	3:14	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Japan	6	6	0	0	24:0	18
2	North Korea	6	3	0	3	11:7	9
3	Syria	6	2	1	3	9:12	7
4	Myanmar	6	0	1	5	3:28	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Korea	6	5	1	0	20:1	16
2	China	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
3	Thailand	6	2	2	2	9:9	8
4	Singapore	6	0	1	5	5:24	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oman	6	4	1	1	11:2	13
2	Kyrgyzstan	6	3	2	1	13:7	11
3	Malaysia	6	3	1	2	9:9	10
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	2:17	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iran	6	4	2	0	16:4	14
2	Uzbekistan	6	4	2	0	13:4	14
3	Turkmenistan	6	0	2	4	4:14	2
4	Hong Kong	6	0	2	4	4:15	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iraq	6	6	0	0	17:2	18
2	Indonesia	6	3	1	2	8:8	10
3	Vietnam	6	2	0	4	6:10	6
4	Philippines	6	0	1	5	3:14	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jordan	6	4	1	1	16:4	13
2	Saudi Arabia	6	4	1	1	12:3	13
3	Tajikistan	6	2	2	2	11:7	8
4	Pakistan	6	0	0	6	1:26	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	United Arab Emirates	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Bahrain	6	3	2	1	11:3	11
3	Yemen	6	1	2	3	5:9	5
4	Nepal	6	0	1	5	2:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Australia	6	6	0	0	22:0	18
2	Palestine	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
3	Lebanon	6	1	3	2	5:8	6
4	Bangladesh	6	0	1	5	1:20	1