Sport Picks

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Tusker vs Muranga

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
Tusker Logo

Tusker

1 - 0
FT
Muranga Logo

Muranga

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Tusker and Muranga finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tusker.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Tusker
15%
Draws
40%
Muranga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tusker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Tusker carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Tusker have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
Muranga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker Muranga
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 14 11
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 0.58 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Premier League
Tusker vs Muranga
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Muranga vs Tusker
0:1
May 10, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Muranga
2:0
Dec 1, 2024 Premier League
Muranga vs Tusker
1:3
May 12, 2024 Premier League
Tusker vs Muranga
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 42 / 100
Muranga 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker Muranga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Muranga let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Tusker stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS Muranga
1 Goals Scored 0.67
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.17
75% Over 1.5 33%
25% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Muranga

(Away)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2
Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1
Muranga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)