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Tyumen vs FK Tosno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2017/2018 Geolog Stadium, Tyumen
Tyumen Logo

Tyumen

1 - 2
FT
FK Tosno Logo

FK Tosno

Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Sukharev S.
31'
Shakuro P.
34' Event
Palienko M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with FK Tosno advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tyumen
15%
Draws
34%
FK Tosno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tyumen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tyumen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tyumen a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Tyumen have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Tosno, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tyumen Clean Sheet 68%
FK Tosno Clean Sheet 22%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tyumen FK Tosno
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 2
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.66 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2017 Russian Cup
Tyumen vs FK Tosno
1:2
Mar 12, 2017 FNL
FK Tosno vs Tyumen
2:2
Aug 17, 2016 FNL
Tyumen vs FK Tosno
1:2
Apr 2, 2016 FNL
FK Tosno vs Tyumen
2:4
Sep 14, 2015 FNL
Tyumen vs FK Tosno
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tyumen Compare

Top Goalscorer Karpov D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

FK Tosno Compare

Top Goalscorer Palienko M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tyumen 77 / 100
FK Tosno 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tyumen FK Tosno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tyumen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Tosno let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Tyumen's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tyumen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tyumen VS FK Tosno
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tyumen

(Home)
03 Oct
Tyumen
0 : 1
Zenit St Petersburg 2
26 Sept
Torpedo Miass
2 : 0
Tyumen
19 Sept
Tyumen
2 : 1
Dynamo Stavropol
13 Sept
Amkar
2 : 3
Tyumen
05 Sept
Tyumen
5 : 2
Dynamo Moscow 2
Page 1 of 6

FK Tosno

(Away)
12 Aug
FK Tosno
0 : 1
Cherepovets
29 Jul
Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie
0 : 3
FK Tosno
13 May
Ufa
5 : 0
FK Tosno
09 May
FK Tosno
2 : 1
Kursk
05 May
FK Tosno
1 : 2
Dynamo Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 2
FC Chertanovo Moscow 0
TBD -
Zenit St Petersburg -
Ararat Moscow 2
Baltika 1
TBD -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1
Vladimir 0
TBD -
Ufa -
Ural -
TBD -
Khimki 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2
Kursk 1
D. Bryansk 0
TBD -
CSKA Moscow -
Arsenal Tula -
TBD -
FC Energomash Belgorod 0
FC Tambov 1
FK Rostov -
TBD -
R. Volgograd 0
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 2
Fakel Voronezh 1
Znamya Truda 0
TBD -
Amkar -
Spartak Moscow -
TBD -
Armavir 0
Kuban Krasnodar 1
Dynamo Moscow -
TBD -
Chernomorets Novorossijsk 1
Spartak Nalchik 2
Krylya Sovetov Samara 2
Syzran 0
TBD -
Lokomotiv Moscow -
Orenburg 3
Saratov 1
TBD -
Rubin Kazan -
Tomsk 4
Irtysh Omsk 0
TBD -
Krasnodar -
Tyumen 2
Sibir Novosibirsk 1
TBD -
FK Tosno -
Yenisey 2
Chita 1
TBD -
Akhmat Grozny -
Anzhi -
TBD -
Smena Komsomolsk 0
Luch Vladivostok 1
1/16-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 3
Zenit St Petersburg 2
Ararat Moscow 1
SKA Khabarovsk 2
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2
Ufa 1
Ural 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3
Kursk 1
CSKA Moscow 0
Arsenal Tula 0
FC Tambov 1
FK Rostov 2
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 0
Fakel Voronezh 0
Amkar 4
Spartak Moscow 2
Kuban Krasnodar 0
Dynamo Moscow 0
Spartak Nalchik 1
Krylya Sovetov Samara 3
Lokomotiv Moscow 2
Orenburg 0
Rubin Kazan 2
Tomsk 2
Krasnodar 1
Tyumen 1
FK Tosno 2
Yenisey 3
Akhmat Grozny 0
Anzhi 0
Luch Vladivostok 2
1/8-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 0
SKA Khabarovsk 2
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 4
Kursk 2
FC Tambov 0
FK Rostov 1
Amkar 2
Spartak Moscow 5
Spartak Nalchik 2
Krylya Sovetov Samara 2
Rubin Kazan 1
Tomsk 0
FK Tosno 1
Yenisey 1
Luch Vladivostok 2
Quarter-finals
SKA Khabarovsk 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1
Kursk 1
Amkar 0
Spartak Moscow 3
Krylya Sovetov Samara 1
FK Tosno 2
Luch Vladivostok 1
Semi-finals
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0
Kursk 1
Spartak Moscow 1
FK Tosno 2
Final
Kursk 1
FK Tosno 2