Sport Picks

Stadium Background

U. Madeira vs Penalva do Castelo

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 Centro Desportivo da Madeira, Ribeira Brava
U. Madeira Logo

U. Madeira

0 - 0
FT
Penalva do Castelo Logo

Penalva do Castelo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
U. Madeira
20%
Draws
40%
Penalva do Castelo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: U. Madeira at 0.71 per game, Penalva do Castelo at 0.7.
  • U. Madeira are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
U. Madeira Clean Sheet 68%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric U. Madeira Penalva do Castelo
Matches Played 17 30
Wins 5 5
Draws 2 7
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 0.71 0.7
Goals Conceded 2.29 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
U. Madeira vs Penalva do Castelo
0:0
Sep 23, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs U. Madeira
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

U. Madeira 95 / 100
Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
U. Madeira Penalva do Castelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick U. Madeira Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Penalva do Castelo conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: Penalva do Castelo has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

U. Madeira's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 17 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

U. Madeira VS Penalva do Castelo
0.25 Goals Scored 0
2.63 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

U. Madeira

(Home)
21 Nov
U. Madeira
0 : 3
Merelinense
14 Nov
Camacha
5 : 0
U. Madeira
07 Nov
U. Madeira
1 : 1
SC Vianense
01 Nov
U. Madeira
0 : 2
Maritimo B
24 Oct
U. Madeira
0 : 3
Forjaes
Page 1 of 4

Penalva do Castelo

(Away)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)