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Uberaba vs Varginha

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uberaba in this Mineiro 3 2021 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Uberaba
35%
Draws
31%
Varginha
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uberaba lately — more wins on the board than Varginha.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Uberaba taking it.
  • Uberaba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uberaba, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Uberaba Clean Sheet 20%
Varginha Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uberaba Varginha
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.29 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2025 Mineiro 2
Varginha vs Uberaba
2:2
May 10, 2025 Mineiro 2
Uberaba vs Varginha
0:0
Apr 27, 2022 Mineiro 2
Varginha vs Uberaba
0:1
Dec 18, 2021 Mineiro 3
Uberaba vs Varginha
3:2
Dec 16, 2021 Mineiro 3
Varginha vs Uberaba
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uberaba 49 / 100
Varginha 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uberaba Varginha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uberaba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varginha let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Uberaba found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (34 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Uberaba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Uberaba VS Varginha
1.25 Goals Scored 1.6
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Uberaba

(Home)
25 Jul
Uberaba
0 : 0
Mamore
18 Jul
Mamore
2 : 1
Uberaba
12 Jul
Caldense
2 : 3
Uberaba
05 Jul
Uberaba
1 : 0
Mamore
01 Jul
Uberaba
3 : 1
Boa
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Varginha

(Away)
21 Jun
URT
1 : 2
Varginha
15 Jun
Varginha
2 : 2
Uberaba
08 Jun
Varginha
1 : 1
Caldense
02 Jun
Mamore
1 : 1
Varginha
28 May
Patrocinense
0 : 2
Varginha
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba 3
Boston City 1
Santarritense 0
Manchester Futebol 1
America TO 1
Pocos de Caldas 1
Araxa 0
Varginha 1
Semi-finals
Uberaba 3
Manchester Futebol 0
America TO 0
Varginha 2
Final
Uberaba 3
Varginha 3