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Uberlandia vs Serra Branca

Brazil Brazil

Serie D
Uberlandia Logo

Uberlandia

Sun, Jul 12, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Serra Branca Logo

Serra Branca

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Uberlandia play Serra Branca in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uberlandia averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. Serra Branca averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Uberlandia won 1, Serra Branca won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Uberlandia and 0.81 for Serra Branca. This points to a Uberlandia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Uberlandia
34%
Draws
31%
Serra Branca
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Uberlandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Uberlandia picked up more points recently compared to Serra Branca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Uberlandia Clean Sheet 26%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uberlandia Serra Branca
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 11 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.16 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Serra Branca vs Uberlandia
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uberlandia 37 / 100
Serra Branca 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uberlandia Serra Branca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uberlandia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uberlandia attacking → ← attacking Serra Branca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uberlandia scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Serra Branca let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Uberlandia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Serra Branca lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 45
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63