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UCAM Murcia vs Alcoyano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UCAM Murcia host Alcoyano in the Segunda RFEF - Group 3. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Alcoyano have shipped 0.65 goals a game lately, while UCAM Murcia have conceded 1.34 and scored 1.86. Head-to-head, UCAM Murcia have won 0 to Alcoyano's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 31, 2024, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.88 xG vs 1.13) point toward Alcoyano. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
UCAM Murcia
15%
Draws
45%
Alcoyano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alcoyano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Alcoyano haven't matched UCAM Murcia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans UCAM Murcia's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Alcoyano have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 68%
Alcoyano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UCAM Murcia Alcoyano
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 4 12
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.86 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Alcoyano vs UCAM Murcia
2:1
Feb 5, 2022 Primera RFEF - Group 2
UCAM Murcia vs Alcoyano
1:2
Oct 15, 2021 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Alcoyano vs UCAM Murcia
3:2
Oct 3, 2020 Club Friendly
Alcoyano vs UCAM Murcia
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UCAM Murcia 68 / 100
Alcoyano 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UCAM Murcia Alcoyano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UCAM Murcia scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

UCAM Murcia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Alcoyano has conceded goals in 42% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

UCAM Murcia VS Alcoyano
2.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UCAM Murcia

(Home)
03 Oct
Ilicitano
1 : 5
UCAM Murcia
27 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2
CF Intercity
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4
UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0
Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
Page 1 of 6

Alcoyano

(Away)
04 Oct
Mallorca B
0 : 1
Alcoyano
27 Sept
Alcoyano
2 : 0
Deportiva Minera
20 Sept
Alcoyano
2 : 0
UD Poblense
12 Sept
Castellon B
3 : 0
Alcoyano
05 Sept
Alcoyano
1 : 1
Ciudad Cieza
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Castellon B 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
2 La Nucia 5 4 0 1 9:3 12
3 Castellonense 5 4 0 1 8:3 12
4 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
5 UCAM Murcia 5 3 0 2 12:6 9
6 CF Intercity 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
7 Ciudad Cieza 5 2 2 1 7:3 8
8 Deportiva Minera 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
9 Yeclano 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Orihuela 5 2 1 2 6:11 7
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
12 Mallorca B 5 1 2 2 2:4 5
13 Baleares 5 1 2 2 6:9 5
14 Valencia B 5 1 1 3 5:7 4
15 Ilicitano 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 UD Poblense 5 1 0 4 3:7 3
17 Real Murcia B 5 1 0 4 4:11 3
18 Pena Deportiva 5 0 1 4 3:8 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)